Trends in extreme precipitation indices across China detected using quantile regression

被引:29
|
作者
Fan, Lijun [1 ]
Chen, Deliang [2 ]
机构
[1] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Key Lab Reg Climate Environm Res Temperate East A, Beijing, Peoples R China
[2] Univ Gothenburg, Dept Earth Sci, Reg Climate Grp, Gothenburg, Sweden
来源
ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS | 2016年 / 17卷 / 07期
基金
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词
extreme precipitation indices; quantile trend; quantile regression; China; CLIMATE DATA; TEMPERATURE; 20TH-CENTURY; HOMOGENEITY;
D O I
10.1002/asl.671
中图分类号
P3 [地球物理学]; P59 [地球化学];
学科分类号
0708 ; 070902 ;
摘要
For China, long-term changes are detected not only in the means of eight extreme precipitation indices, but also in their distribution shapes by quantile regression. This resulted in different trends for the means and other aspects of the index distributions. The differences between changes in the means and upper/lower extremes vary with region and index. A noteworthy feature is that changes in upper tails of the index distributions across a broad area, especially in the south, are at a much higher rate than mean trends estimated by the traditional linear regression model. This has practical implications for disaster risk management.
引用
收藏
页码:400 / 406
页数:7
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