Structural reliability of a suezmax oil tanker designed according to new joint tanker project rules

The paper aims at quantifying the changes in notional reliability levels that result from redesigning an existing suezmax tanker to comply with new Joint Tanker Project (JTP) rule requirement for ultimate vertical bending moment capacity. The probability of structural failure is calculated using a first-order reliability method. The evaluation of the wave-induced load effects that occur during long-term operation of the ship in the seaway is carried out in accordance to IACS recommended procedure. Comparative analysis of long-term distributions of vertical wave bending moment calculated by two independent computer seakeeping codes is performed. The still water loads are defined on the basis of a statistical analysis of loading conditions from the loading manual. The ultimate collapse bending moment of the inidship cross section, which is used as the basis for the reliability formulation, is evaluated by JTP single-step procedure and by program HULLCOLL for progressive collapse analysis of ship hull-girders. The reliability assessment is performed for "as-built" and "corroded" states of the existing ship and a reinforced design configuration complying with new JTP rules. It is shown that hull-girder failure probability of suezmax tanker reinforced according to new JTP rules is reduced several times. Sensitivity analysis and a parametric study are performed to investigate the variability of results to the change of parameters of pertinent random variables within their plausible ranges.