Image-guided prediction of pseudocyst formation in pediatric pancreatic trauma

Background: Todetermineif there is an effective alternative to the current standard of computed tomography (CT) grading of pediatric pancreatic injuries. We hypothesized that the Wong grading scale, which is based on the depth and location of the pancreatic laceration, is more predictive of pseudocyst formation than the American Association for the Surgery of Trauma (AAST) scale after nonoperative management of traumatic pancreatic injury in children. Materials and methods: A retrospective review of children admitted for pancreatic trauma to two level 1 pediatric trauma centers between 2000 and 2012 was conducted. Patients who underwent primary operation were excluded. Initial CT scans were reviewed by two radiologists blinded to clinical outcomes, and injury grades from both scales were assigned. The primary outcome was pseudocyst formation. Results: Fifty-three patients (ages 7 mo-17 y) were included. As per the Wong scale, pseudocysts occurred in 0/20 patients with grade A injuries, 2/17 (12%) with BI/CI injuries, and 9/15 (60%) with BII/CII injuries. Using the AAST scale, pseudocysts developed in 2/27 (7%) patients with grade I/II injuries, 7/20 (35%) patients with III/IV/V injuries, and 1/6 (17%) patients with a scan that was indeterminate between grades II and III. Positive Predictive value, negative predictive value, sensitivity, and specificity for pseudocyst formation were all higher using the Wong scale (AAST/Wong: Positive Predictive value 42%/50%, negative predictive value 91%/94%, sensitivity 80%/82%, and specificity 65%/77%). Conclusions: The Wong CT grading scale may be superior to the AAST scale for early risk stratification for pseudocyst development after nonoperative management of pediatric pancreatic trauma; however, a larger study is needed for verification of these findings. (C) 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.