PREDICTING INSOLVENCY RISK OF THE CZECH COMPANIES

The goal of this paper is to create and evaluate the models for predicting insolvency risk of the Czech companies. This contribution aims to reveal the most important factors which affect the bankruptcy in the Czech Republic including the characteristics of the local business environment. Using the public data from the accounting statements (from 2005 to 2013) we have built model with one-year forecast horizon. The model is treated as the standard logit models and estimated using the maximum likelihood approach. Comparing the results with the traditional bankruptcy models proves that our model has overall better predictive power and can be thus used for reliable evaluations of the future financial stability of the Czech companies.