Phase-Aware CPU Workload Forecasting

Predicting workload behavior during execution is essential for dynamic resource optimization of processor systems. Early studies used simple prediction algorithms such as a history tables. More recently, researchers have applied advanced machine learning regression techniques. Workload prediction can be cast as a time series forecasting problem. Time series forecasting is an active research area with recent advances that have not been studied in the context of workload prediction. In this paper, we first perform a comparative study of representative time series forecasting techniques to predict the dynamic workload of applications running on a CPU. We adapt state-of-the-art matrix profile and dynamic linear models (DLMs) not previously applied to workload prediction and compare them against traditional SVM and LSTM models that have been popular for handling non-stationary data. We find that all time series forecasting models struggle to predict abrupt workload changes. These changes occur because workloads go through phases, where prior work has studied workload phase detection, classification and prediction. We propose a novel approach that combines time series forecasting with phase prediction. We process each phase as a separate time series and train one forecasting model per phase. At runtime, forecasts from phase-specific models are selected and combined based on the predicted phase behavior. We apply our approach to forecasting of SPEC workloads running on a state-of-the-art Intel machine. Our results show that an LSTM-based phase-aware predictor can forecast workload CPI with less than 8% mean absolute error while reducing CPI error by more than 12% on average compared to a non-phase-aware approach.