Change and stability in the social determinants of divorce: A comparison of marriage cohorts in the Netherlands

This article addresses historical developments in the effects of five social determinants of divorce in the Netherlands: parental socioeconomic status, educational attainment, religion, parental divorce, and having children. Employing a national survey with information about 1,356 divorces, from 6,164 marriages formed between 1942 and 1999, event-history models show that the effects of most social determinants of divorce are stable. The effects of parental socioeconomic status, religion, parental divorce, and having children have not changed over marriage cohorts. The one and only exception lies in education. The effect of education has changed from a positive effect to a negative effect. In times when divorce was uncommon, the higher educated were more likely to divorce than the lower educated. Presently, the lower educated are more likely to divorce than the higher educated. This trend confirms Goode's long-standing but rarely tested hypothesis about the reversing effect of social class on divorce.