Emerging markets and heavy tails

被引:30
|
作者
Ibragimov, Marat [1 ]
Ibragimov, Rustam [2 ]
Kattuman, Paul [3 ]
机构
[1] Tashkent State Univ Econ, Dept Higher Math, Tashkent 100138, Uzbekistan
[2] Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, Imperial Coll Business Sch, London SW7 2AZ, England
[3] Univ Cambridge, Judge Business Sch, Cambridge CB2 1AG, England
基金
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
Heavy-tailedness; Tail indices; Robust estimation; Log-log rank-size regression; Exchange rates; Emerging countries; Financial crisis; EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES; SIZE DISTRIBUTION; DIVERSIFICATION; INEQUALITY; BEHAVIOR; GROWTH;
D O I
10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.02.019
中图分类号
F8 [财政、金融];
学科分类号
0202 ;
摘要
Emerging countries are held to be subject to more frequent and more pronounced external and internal shocks than their developed counter-parts. This suggests that key variables pertaining to their markets, including their exchange rates, will be marked by greater likelihood of extreme observations and large fluctuations. We focus on the hypothesis that compared to developed country exchange rates, emerging country exchange rates will be more pronouncedly heavy-tailed. We find support for the hypothesis using recently proposed robust tail index estimation methods which, in particular, perform well under heavy-tailed dependent GARCH processes that are often used for modeling exchange rates. According to the estimation results reported in the paper, variances may be infinite for several emerging country exchange rates. Tail index values zeta = p is an element of (2.6,2.8) appear to be at the dividing boundary between the two sets of countries: while the moments of order p is an element of (2.6,2.8) are finite for most of the developed country exchange rates, they may be (or are) infinite for most of the emerging country exchange rates. We also study the impact of the on-going financial and economic crisis, and find that heavy-tailedness properties of most exchange rates did not change significantly with the onset of the crisis. At the same time, some foreign exchange markets have experienced structural changes in their heavy-tailedness properties during the crisis. (c) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:2546 / 2559
页数:14
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