Long-term outcomes of antiretroviral therapy in an adult HIV program: a 10-year retrospective cohort study in Kano, Nigeria

BACKGROUND: Treatment outcomes from HIV/AIDS programs in resource-limited settings mostly describe short-term follow-up. We report 10-year treatment outcomes in an HIV clinic in Kano, Nigeria. METHODS: Using paper medical charts, the authors conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients that initiated ART from June 1, 2004 to December 31, 2007, and were followed up until June 30, 2014. The authors abstracted data from patient case files and did a time-to-event analysis on ART failure and loss to follow-up, and determined immunologic trends. RESULTS: The authors studied 345 patient records (29,860 person months of follow-up); 82 records (23.7%) indicated that patients failed their first-line ART regimen at the rate of 2.75 failures per 1000 person-months. The estimates of durability on first-line ART regimen were 99.1% at 1 year and 59.0% at 10 years. Of the studied patients, 83.0% were still in care at the end of the 10-year period. Only being on abacavir (hazard ratio: 8.0) was a positive predictor of ART failure. CD4 increment at 4 years (hazard ratio: 0.9) and 5 years (hazard ratio: 0.9) were negative predictors. CONCLUSION: A high rate of long-term ART durability and modest long-term retention in care were achieved among our cohort. Improved availability of low-cost virologic and immunologic monitoring tools and provision of resistance testing technology will go a long way in improving early detection of treatment failure in the developing world.