Predictors of an unfavorable outcome 1.5 and 12 years after a first, uncomplicated lumbar disc surgery

To identify predictors of both intermediate and long-term unfavorable outcomes after first time, uncomplicated lumbar disc surgery. Patients (n = 120) who had undergone lumbar disc surgery were followed up 1.5 and 12 years thereafter. Baseline assessments were carried out 5-8 days after surgery. Clinical outcome was assessed in both follow-ups using the Low Back Pain Rating Scale. Statistical analysis included binary logistic and linear regression. Unfavorable outcomes were found in 50.5 % (1.5 years) and 52.6 % (12 years) of patients available for follow-up examination. Low pre-operative physical activity and severe pain in the first week after surgery were predictive of an unfavorable post-operative outcome at both follow-ups. Identified predictors suggest that particular emphasis should put on comprehensive post-operative care at large and encouragement to adapt a physically active lifestyle in particular in rehabilitation concepts after first time uncomplicated lumbar disc surgery.