Integration of market dynamics into the design of biofuel processes

Wood is considered one of the main future feedstocks in the production of second generation biofuels in Europe. While feedstock cost has a major impact on production cost, wood prices are expected to change significantly once biorefineries enter the raw material market as new high volume consumers. Therefore, wood market dynamics and approximate price forecasting should be integrated into decision-making during the design phase. In this contribution we show how such an integration could be realized by combining a preliminary process model to determine the raw material demand and a spatial partial equilibrium model of the wood market to predict the price development. This approach is illustrated on a case study examining the production of 2-methyltetrahydrofuran (MTHF) as a novel biofuel component, which is converted from deciduous wood grown in Germany.