Western Corn Rootworm;
Zero-inflated Poisson mixture model;
Abundance model;
Climate change;
Pest modelling;
SPECIES ABUNDANCE;
DIGESTIBILITY;
STRATEGIES;
EUROPE;
D O I:
10.1016/j.agsy.2019.04.010
中图分类号:
S [农业科学];
学科分类号:
09 ;
摘要:
The Western Corn Rootworm (WCR, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera) has become one of the main maize pests in Europe. Our objective was to develop a model for mapping spread and abundance of WCR in Austria as a function of the natural spread, climatic conditions and the maize share in crop rotations. Records of a total of 5,338 WCR monitoring traps spread over Austria are available for the period 2002-2015, with 2,520 (47.2%) showing zero counts. We developed a spatial zero-inflated Poisson mixture (ZIP) model to relate WCR counts to climatic conditions and maize shares and account for zero-inflation, and spatial correlation in the count data. The model was validated by a 40-fold cross validation procedure and applied to Austrian cropland on a spatial resolution of 1 km. Results show that increased probabilities of WCR occurrence and abundance are associated with higher maize shares in crop rotations combined with a positive influence of higher winter temperatures and summer precipitation. The developed model provides a scientifically sound basis for analysing impacts of future climate change scenarios and crop rotational maize restrictions on the spread and abundance of WCR. It supports the development of WCR control measures.
机构:
NIOZ Royal Netherlands Inst Sea Res, Dept Marine Ecol, POB 59, NL-1790 AB Den Burg, Texel, NetherlandsNIOZ Royal Netherlands Inst Sea Res, Dept Marine Ecol, POB 59, NL-1790 AB Den Burg, Texel, Netherlands
Lyashevska, Olga
Brus, Dick J.
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Wageningen Univ & Res Ctr, Alterra, POB 47, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, NetherlandsNIOZ Royal Netherlands Inst Sea Res, Dept Marine Ecol, POB 59, NL-1790 AB Den Burg, Texel, Netherlands
Brus, Dick J.
van der Meer, Jaap
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
NIOZ Royal Netherlands Inst Sea Res, Dept Marine Ecol, POB 59, NL-1790 AB Den Burg, Texel, NetherlandsNIOZ Royal Netherlands Inst Sea Res, Dept Marine Ecol, POB 59, NL-1790 AB Den Burg, Texel, Netherlands
机构:
W Virginia Univ, Dept Biostat, Morgantown, WV 26506 USAW Virginia Univ, Dept Biostat, Morgantown, WV 26506 USA
Long, D. Leann
Preisser, John S.
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Univ N Carolina, Dept Biostat, Chapel Hill, NC USAW Virginia Univ, Dept Biostat, Morgantown, WV 26506 USA
Preisser, John S.
Herring, Amy H.
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Univ N Carolina, Dept Biostat, Chapel Hill, NC USA
Univ N Carolina, Carolina Populat Ctr, Chapel Hill, NC USAW Virginia Univ, Dept Biostat, Morgantown, WV 26506 USA
Herring, Amy H.
Golin, Carol E.
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Univ N Carolina, Dept Hlth Behav, Chapel Hill, NC USA
Univ N Carolina, Dept Med, Chapel Hill, NC USAW Virginia Univ, Dept Biostat, Morgantown, WV 26506 USA
机构:
NanTong Univ, Sch Sci, Nantong, Peoples R ChinaNanTong Univ, Sch Sci, Nantong, Peoples R China
Zha, Weihua
Zhang, Riquan
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
E China Normal Univ, Sch Finance & Stat, Shanghai 200062, Peoples R China
Shanxi Datong Univ, Dept Math, Datong, Peoples R ChinaNanTong Univ, Sch Sci, Nantong, Peoples R China
Zhang, Riquan
Liu, Jicai
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
E China Normal Univ, Sch Finance & Stat, Shanghai 200062, Peoples R ChinaNanTong Univ, Sch Sci, Nantong, Peoples R China
Liu, Jicai
Lv, Yazhao
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
E China Normal Univ, Sch Finance & Stat, Shanghai 200062, Peoples R ChinaNanTong Univ, Sch Sci, Nantong, Peoples R China
机构:
Columbia Univ, Mailman Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Biostat, New York, NY 10032 USAColumbia Univ, Mailman Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Biostat, New York, NY 10032 USA
Xu, Tianchen
Demmer, Ryan T.
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Univ Minnesota, Sch Publ Hlth, Div Epidemiol, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USAColumbia Univ, Mailman Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Biostat, New York, NY 10032 USA
Demmer, Ryan T.
Li, Gen
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Columbia Univ, Mailman Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Biostat, New York, NY 10032 USAColumbia Univ, Mailman Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Biostat, New York, NY 10032 USA