Scanning, perceived uncertainty, and the interpretation of trends: A study of hotel directors' interpretation of demographic change

This paper examines how scanning can affect the interpretation of a specific trend and the uncertainty related to this interpretation. Based on a two-stage interpretative process, this study tests a series of hypotheses linked to scanning, trend interpretation and perceived environmental uncertainty, using survey data from the Swiss hotel industry concerning the ageing population trend. The study uncovers considerable evidence to support the main propositions, and in particular, shows how general scanning relates to positive interpretations of change and builds confidence in managers, whilst lowering perceived uncertainty. It is further found that high performance hotels engage in more scanning and experience lower uncertainty related to specific issues than do low performance hotels. This paper is innovative in examining how general scanning, not just issue-specific scanning, can reduce two types of issue-specific uncertainty, as well as influence interpretations. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.