Modeling the biomass production of the biofuel crop Miscanthus x giganteus, to understand and communicate benefits and risks in cultivation

Bioenergy crop models predict harvestable biomass using known variables, and illustrate key parameters that determine the crop yield. We developed a model, using the systems software STELLA, to provide a conceptual representation of Miscanthus x giganteus crop system and understand various parameters and their influence on the growth and loss of harvestable biomass. Using data from four locations, we developed a model and used it to predict yields comparable to reported biomass production from Champaign, IL, thus validating the model structure. Sensitivity analyses of model variables suggested that solar radiation, rainfall, temperature, soil water holding capacity, solar energy interception and conversion efficiency, evapotranspiration, crop coefficient, irrigation and harvest date significantly influenced the predicted harvestable biomass. The flexible STELLA platform also allows the stakeholders to expand and modify the model to incorporate additional variables if required and ultimately enables informed decision-making for bioenergy crop production at any location. (C) 2015 International Energy Initiative. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.