The development of renewable energy industry under renewable portfolio standards: From the perspective of provincial resource differences

A low-carbon energy policy is an effective measure for promoting the development of renewable energy(RE). China has introduced renewable portfolio standards(RPS) and voluntary subscription for tradable green certif-icates(TGCs), but the market response is not significant. China's electricity trading functions at provincial-level regions, and there are differences in resources between the provinces. New policies need to consider the char-acteristics of each province to reduce market implementation risk for introduction and implementation. Therefore, based on the provincial characteristics of energy resource endowment in China, we construct a system dynamics(SD) model of the coupling of the RE market, consumption above quota(CAQ), and TGC market based on the structure of the sending-end grid(SG) and receiving-end grid(RG). Three types of TGC models were designed based on the scope of the TGC market. Finally, the impact of policy parameters such as the RPS target, inter-provincial transmission capacity, TGC validity period, and technology cost on the development of RE in-dustries in both SG and RG was analyzed. The results show that the TGC market to be developed independently in various provinces in the initial stage and later expanded into a unified market. Increased RPS requirements, increased inter-provincial transmission capacity, and lower RE costs can enhance policy implementation.