Uncertainty of Czech macroeconomic data: advanced analysis: output gap

The article analyses output gap values that axe published by the Czech National Bank. It shows that output gap estimates are uncertain and substantial revisions occur very often. The revisions are often so radical, that it is not sure, whether the economy is above or below its potential. The contribution also constructs confidence bands for "true" values of output gap. Ascertained data uncertainty is very strong and the quality of output gap estimates is low.