GIS-based multidimensional decision model for enhancing flood risk prioritization in urban areas

Flooding can be an unexpected event which causes high impacts on everyone in society. These can include loss of life, injuries, creating homelessness, as well as causing damage to properties, and disrupting commerce and public services. Hence, seeking to reduce disasters caused by flooding is a significant challenge for policymakers, technical professionals, organizations, and civil society. However, ensuring that they interact with each other demands multiple objectives be set and achieved -such as those concerning economic, social, human, public health and accessibility factors, even though these factors may conflict with each other. Thus, this paper proposes a multidimensional decision model to prioritize risks from flooding in urban areas, and to assess the overall risk by using probabilistic analysis. The modeling is based on Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT). In order to validate the model, a case study that was carried out in a municipality in the Northeast of Brazil is simulated with realistic data. Furthermore, the results are discussed by taking advantage of visualizations of risk mapping developed from a Geographic Information System (GIS) that acts as a supplementary tool to guide local policies on preventing and mitigating floods. In addition, it can be used to improve practices, such as resource allocation planning, to achieve this goal. Moreover, the model is flexible and can be replicated in any region of the world. It presents an alternative proposal with potential for management improvements, since the decision-maker (DM) can access a broader range of information.