Predictors of Opioid Misuse During Emerging Adulthood: An Examination of Adolescent Individual, Family and Peer Factors

Introduction: Opioid misuse has reached epidemic proportions among emerging adults in the U.S. To inform prevention efforts, this study examined adolescent factors related to alcohol and marijuana (AM) use that are associated with a higher or lower risk for opioid misuse during emerging adulthood. Methods: We used 11 waves of survey data from a diverse California cohort (N = 6,509). Predictor variables from waves 1-7 (ages 11-17) included individual (resistance self-efficacy, positive expectancies) family (older sibling and important adult use), and peer (perceived norms, time spent with peers who use, peer approval) factors. Opioid misuse at wave 8 (mean age = 18.3) and wave 11 (mean age = 21.6) included heroin and nonmedical prescription drug use. Results: Initial latent growth models (LGMs) indicated that nearly all intercepts and slopes for individual, family, and peer AM factors predicted opioid misuse at waves 8 and 11. These associations were reduced to non-significance after adjusting for prior other substance use with the exception of three intercepts: positive expectancies, peer approval, and older sibling use predicted a higher probability of opioid misuse at wave 8. Conclusions: Stronger AM positive expectancies, perceived peer approval of AM use, and older sibling AM use during adolescence are associated with a higher likelihood of opioid misuse during the transition to emerging adulthood. However, most adolescent factors were no longer associated with subsequent opioid misuse after adjusting for history of other substance use, highlighting the importance of considering the larger context of substance use in studies of opioid misuse among young people.