The realities of risk-cost-benefit analysis

被引:76
|
作者
Fischhoff, Baruch [1 ]
机构
[1] Carnegie Mellon Univ, Dept Social & Decis Sci, Dept Engn & Publ Policy, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA
基金
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
EXPERT JUDGMENTS; ELICITATION; DECISION; SCIENCE; LUNG; UNCERTAINTY; ENERGY; MODEL;
D O I
10.1126/science.aaa6516
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
Formal analyses can be valuable aids to decision-making if their limits are understood. Those limits arise from the two forms of subjectivity found in all analyses: ethical judgments, made when setting the terms of an analysis, and scientific judgments, made when conducting it. As formal analysis has assumed a larger role in policy decisions, awareness of those judgments has grown, as have methods for making them. The present review traces these developments, using examples that illustrate the issues that arise when designing, executing, and interpreting analyses. It concludes with lessons learned from the science and practice of analysis. One common thread in these lessons is the importance of collaborative processes, whereby analysts and decision-makers educate one another about their respective needs and capabilities.
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页数:8
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