A differential inclusion approach for modeling and analysis of dynamical systems under uncertainty Application to dengue disease transmission

In this paper we deal with the application of differential inclusions to modeling nonlinear dynamical systems under uncertainty in parameters. In this case, differential inclusions seem to be better suited to modeling practical situations under uncertainty and imprecision than formulations by means of fuzzy differential equations. We develop a practical algorithm to approximate the reachable sets of a class of nonlinear differential inclusion, which eludes the computational problems of a previous set-valued version of the Heun's method. Our algorithm is based on a complete discretization (time and state space) of the differential inclusion and it suits hardware features, handling the memory used by the method in a controlled fashion during all iterations. As a case of study, we formulate a differential inclusion to model an epidemic outbreak of dengue fever under Cuban conditions. The model takes into account interaction of human and mosquito populations as well as vertical transmission in the mosquito population. It is studied from the theoretical point of view to apply the Practical Algorithm. Also, we estimate the temporal evolution of the different human and mosquito populations given by the model in the Dengue 3 epidemic in Havana 2001, through the computation of the reachable sets using the Practical Algorithm.