The Way Forward after the Durban Climate Change Conference: A Strategic Analysis

The negotiations over reducing the amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions among major emitters are studied using the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution to gain better insight and understanding into the current situation. After the Durban and Doha climate change conferences were signed, major emitters took different mitigation actions to lower the amount of GHG in the atmosphere. The possible equilibrium states were determined to ascertain if major GHG emitters would lower their emissions according to the agreements or not. The analytical results reveal a strong motivation from the European Union nations (EU 27) and other developed countries to lower the amount of GHG with high ambition levels, while both the United States (US) and emerging countries namely, China, India, Brazil and South Africa, are acting with low ambition levels to lower the amount of GHG. The analysis also indicates that both the EU 27 and other developed countries will lower their ambition levels if the US and emerging countries retain low ambition levels. Finally, the analysis also demonstrates that both the US and China are still not willing to cooperate with each other to mitigate negative impacts of climate change.