At Home on the Range? Lay Interpretations of Numerical Uncertainty Ranges

被引:42
|
作者
Dieckmann, Nathan F. [1 ,2 ,3 ]
Peters, Ellen [4 ]
Gregory, Robin [3 ]
机构
[1] Oregon Hlth & Sci Univ, Sch Nursing, Portland, OR 97239 USA
[2] Oregon Hlth & Sci Univ, Dept Publ Hlth & Preventat Med, Portland, OR 97239 USA
[3] Decis Res, Eugene, OR USA
[4] Ohio State Univ, Dept Psychol, Columbus, OH 43210 USA
基金
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
Ambiguity; climate change; numeracy; risk communication; uncertainty; JUDGMENTS; NUMERACY; COMPREHENSION; RISK; COMMUNICATION; LIKELIHOOD;
D O I
10.1111/risa.12358
中图分类号
R1 [预防医学、卫生学];
学科分类号
1004 ; 120402 ;
摘要
Numerical uncertainty ranges are often used to convey the precision of a forecast. In three studies, we examined how users perceive the distribution underlying numerical ranges and test specific hypotheses about the display characteristics that affect these perceptions. We discuss five primary conclusions from these studies: (1) substantial variation exists in how people perceive the distribution underlying numerical ranges; (2) distributional perceptions appear similar whether the uncertain variable is a probability or an outcome; (3) the variation in distributional perceptions is due in part to individual differences in numeracy, with more numerate individuals more likely to perceive the distribution as roughly normal; (4) the variation is also due in part to the presence versus absence of common cues used to convey the correct interpretation (e.g., including a best estimate increases perceptions that the distribution is roughly normal); and (5) simple graphical representations can decrease the variance in distributional perceptions. These results point toward significant opportunities to improve uncertainty communication in climate change and other domains.
引用
收藏
页码:1281 / 1295
页数:15
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