Extremes of Temperature, Oxygen and Blooms in the Baltic Sea in a Changing Climate

被引：84

作者：

Neumann, Thomas ^{[1
]}

Eilola, Kari ^{[2
]}

Gustafsson, Bo ^{[3
]}

Muller-Karulis, Barbel ^{[3
]}

Kuznetsov, Ivan ^{[4
]}

Meier, H. E. Markus ^{[4
]}

Savchuk, Oleg P. ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Leibniz Inst Balt Sea Res Warnemunde, D-18119 Rostock, Germany

[2] Swedish Meteorol & Hydrol Inst, S-42671 Vastra Frolunda, Sweden

[3] Stockholm Univ, Balt Nest Inst, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden

[4] Swedish Meteorol & Hydrol Inst, S-60176 Norrkoping, Sweden

来源：

AMBIO | 2012年 / 41卷 / 06期

关键词：

Baltic Sea; Climate change; Modeling; Ecosystem; CYANOBACTERIAL BLOOMS; MARINE ECOSYSTEMS; ATMOSPHERE MODEL; HUMAN IMPACT; VARIABILITY; RESPONSES; ENSEMBLE; HYPOXIA; GULF;

D O I：

10.1007/s13280-012-0321-2

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

In the future, the Baltic Sea ecosystem will be impacted both by climate change and by riverine and atmospheric nutrient inputs. Multi-model ensemble simulations comprising one IPCC scenario (A1B), two global climate models, two regional climate models, and three Baltic Sea ecosystem models were performed to elucidate the combined effect of climate change and changes in nutrient inputs. This study focuses on the occurrence of extreme events in the projected future climate. Results suggest that the number of days favoring cyanobacteria blooms could increase, anoxic events may become more frequent and last longer, and salinity may tend to decrease. Nutrient load reductions following the Baltic Sea Action Plan can reduce the deterioration of oxygen conditions.

引用

页码：574 / 585

页数：12

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