Realistic considerations for technology adoption - a wine industry example

Implications of inaccurate grape forecasting resonate throughout the entire Australian wine industry and substantially reduce its profitability. Conservative estimates suggest that, nationally, the economic benefits of better crop forecasting are in the order of tens of millions dollars annually. To improve the ability of industry personnel to more accurately forecast wine grape deliveries, a Winegrape Crop Forecasting Training Module was developed with funding from the Grape and Wine Research and Development Corporation and the Victorian Department of Primary Industries. The aim of the project was to 'package' best-practice yield forecasting methods - the results of years of research - into a short course supported by a manual and forecasting software. The manual titled How to forecast winegrape deliveries is supported by a new, user-friendly database software product, called Grape Forecaster. The project has also produced a Trainer's Guide to support future trainers deliver crop forecasting training. As part of the project, the training course was delivered to five groups of growers and consultants across South Eastern Australia in the 2002/2003 season for evaluation and potential improvement. Over 90% of participants who completed the training indicated that they intended to use the crop forecasting system in following seasons. Subsequent evaluations were conducted after the 2003/2004 season to determine actual adoption rates. This paper discusses the results of this evaluation and presents an overview of the development and delivery of the Crop Forecasting Training Module system. Finally, future issues and implications for adoption of new technology by the Australian wine industry are discussed.