Risk factors for transition to first episode psychosis among individuals with 'at-risk mental states'

Recently developed criteria have been successful at identifying individuals at imminent risk of developing a psychotic disorder, but these criteria lead to 50-60% false positives. This study investigated whether measures of family history, perinatal complications, premorbid social functioning, premorbid personality, recent life events and current symptoms would be able to improve predictions of psychosis in a group of young, help-seeking individuals who had been identified as being at risk. Individuals (N= 74) were followed up at least I year after initial assessment. Half the sample went on to develop a psychotic disorder. The most reliable scale-based predictor was the degree of presence of schizotypal personality characteristics. However, individual items assessing odd beliefs/magical thinking, marked impairment in role functioning, blunted or inappropriate affect, anhedonia/asociality and auditory hallucinations were also highly predictive of transition, yielding good sensitivity (84%) and specificity (86%). These predictors are consistent with a picture of poor premorbid functioning that further declines in the period up to transition. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.