The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment Score Predicts 30-Day Mortality in a Geriatric Acute Care Setting

Background. Several tools to predict patients' survival have been proposed in medical wards, though they are often time consuming and difficult to apply. The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) is a promising tool that has been validated in intensive care units but never in acute medical wards. The aim of this study was to assess whether the SOFA score predicts short-term (30 days) mortality in a population of elderly patients admitted to a geriatric ward. Methods. This prospective observational cohort study was carried out in a Geriatric Clinic of an Italian teaching hospital. Among 359 patients consecutively and firstly admitted between January and April 2012, we considered eligible those (n = 314) directly admitted from the emergency department. Demographic, functional, and clinical variables were collected. The SOFA score was measured on admission (SOFA-admission) and 48 hours later (SOFA-48h). The vital status of participants was assessed over the 30 days following discharge. Results. Patients who died at 1-month follow-up were prevalently men, more comorbid, disabled, and undernourished and had higher SOFA scores on admission and at 48 hours than their counterparts. Among all potential predictors of 1-month mortality, the SOFA-48h score was the best, with a score greater than 4 significantly increasing the risk to die during hospitalization or in the 30 days following discharge (odds ratio = 7.030; 95% confidence interval = 3.982-12.409). Conclusions. The SOFA score, a user-friendly tool used in intensive care units to estimate prognosis, is able to predict 1-month mortality also in patients admitted to an acute geriatric setting.