Evidence for transmission of COVID-19 prior to symptom onset

被引：188

作者：

Tindale, Lauren C. ^{[1
]}

Stockdale, Jessica E. ^{[2
]}

Coombe, Michelle ^{[1
]}

Garlock, Emma S. ^{[2
]}

Lau, Wing Yin Venus ^{[2
]}

Saraswat, Manu ^{[1
]}

Zhang, Louxin ^{[3
]}

Chen, Dongxuan ^{[4
,5
]}

Wallinga, Jacco ^{[4
,5
]}

Colijn, Caroline ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Univ British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada

[2] Simon Fraser Univ, Burnaby, BC, Canada

[3] Natl Univ Singapore, Singapore, Singapore

[4] Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm, Ctr Infect Dis Control, Bilthoven, Netherlands

[5] Leiden Univ, Med Ctr, Leiden, Netherlands

来源：

ELIFE | 2020年 / 9卷

关键词：

INTERVALS; DYNAMICS;

D O I：

10.7554/eLife.57149

中图分类号：

Q [生物科学];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

We collated contact tracing data from COVID-19 clusters in Singapore and Tianjin, China and estimated the extent of pre-symptomatic transmission by estimating incubation periods and serial intervals. The mean incubation periods accounting for intermediate cases were 4.91 days (95%CI 4.35, 5.69) and 7.54 (95%CI 6.76, 8.56) days for Singapore and Tianjin, respectively. The mean serial interval was 4.17 (95%CI 2.44, 5.89) and 4.31 (95%CI 2.91, 5.72) days (Singapore, Tianjin). The serial intervals are shorter than incubation periods, suggesting that pre-symptomatic transmission may occur in a large proportion of transmission events (0.4-0.5 in Singapore and 0.6-0.8 in Tianjin, in our analysis with intermediate cases, and more without intermediates). Given the evidence for pre-symptomatic transmission, it is vital that even individuals who appear healthy abide by public health measures to control COVID-19.

引用

页码：1 / 34

页数：23

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