Influence measurement of rapid urbanization on agricultural production factors based on provincial panel data

The proportion of agricultural output value is continuously decreasing because of the process of rapid urbanization, but it is still the basis of economic development and urban construction. Agricultural production factors are at the core of agriculture, and have an important influence on the agricultural output value. In the period of rapid urbanization, high technical and capital investment improved agricultural production efficiency and increased the income of farmers. However, in recent years it also introduced serious problems for agricultural production, including aging farmers and weakening labor markets, farmland conversion, and soil pollution. In this study, we estimated the elasticity coefficients of agricultural production factors, including labor, capital and technique, using the improved Cobb-Douglas production function and provincial panel data from 2000 to 2015, and measured the effects of urbanization on elasticity coefficients using the Euclidean metric and gravity model. The results were as follows. (1) In time, the elasticity coefficient of labor was stable, and with a low increase from 0.238 to 0.304. However, the elasticity coefficients of land and capital had been increasing since 2000, by 1.125 and 0.140, respectively. The higher elasticity coefficient of agricultural production factors was gradual from labor to capital, with the growth of urbanization level. (2) In space, the elasticity coefficients were the space distribution, as urbanization divided into east, central and west: the elasticity coefficients of labor and land in the eastern regions were higher, and the elasticity coefficient of capital in the central regions was higher. (3) Economic urbanization had a larger positive influence on the elasticity coefficient of capital, and the population had a larger negative influence on elasticity coefficients of labor. The quantitative results were similar to the development status, but there were different influences on elasticity coefficients in different provinces. (4) Finally, the study put forward suggestions for agricultural sustainable development according to the function mechanism of urbanization on agricultural production factors, including increasing the attention paid agriculture, ensuring a stable market environment, and optimizing the industrial structure, with reference to scientific, green and healthy agriculture.