Towards the qualitative, plan-based simulation of international crises

We describe an algorithm for the calculation of whether a given state is the origin of a crisis or not. The algorithm is based on a qualitative, plan-based model of crises described by Baiter, W., 1996 (in: Huber, R.K., Avenhaus, R. (Eds.), Models for Security Policy in the Post-Cold War Era. Nomos, Baden-Baden, pp. 233-252) which is outlined as far as necessary. The algorithm is intended to serve as a basis for implementation In the final part of the paper, we discuss perspectives and problems of the implementation of simulation- and support programs for international crises. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.