Modeling arterial travel time distribution by accounting for link correlations: a copula-based approach

被引:17
|
作者
Chen, Peng [1 ,2 ]
Zeng, Weiliang [3 ]
Chen, Min [1 ,2 ]
Yu, Guizhen [1 ,2 ]
Wang, Yunpeng [1 ,2 ]
机构
[1] Beihang Univ, Sch Transportat Sci & Engn, Beijing Key Lab Cooperat Vehicle Infrastruct Syst, Beijing, Peoples R China
[2] Beihang Univ, Beijing Adv Innovat Ctr Big Data & Brain Comp, Beijing, Peoples R China
[3] Guangdong Univ Technol, Sch Automat, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China
基金
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词
Copula; link correlations; signal coordination; travel time distribution; urban arterial; DELAY VARIABILITY; PROBE DATA; RELIABILITY; NETWORKS; MIXTURE; SPEED; PATH;
D O I
10.1080/15472450.2018.1484738
中图分类号
U [交通运输];
学科分类号
08 ; 0823 ;
摘要
The estimation of urban arterial travel time distribution (TTD) is critical to help implement Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) and provide travelers with timely and reliable route guidance. The state-of-practice procedure for arterial TTD estimation commonly assumes that the path travel time follows a certain distribution without considering link correlations. However, this approach appears inappropriate since travel times on successive links are essentially dependent along signalized arterials. In this study, a copula-based approach is proposed to model arterial TTD by accounting for spatial link correlations. First, TTDs on consecutive links along one arterial in Hangzhou, China are investigated. Link TTDs are estimated through the nonparametric kernel smoothing method. Link correlations are analyzed in both unfavorable and favorable coordination cases. Then, Gaussian copula models are introduced to model the dependent structure between link TTDs. The parameters of Gaussian copula are obtained by Maximum-Likelihood Estimation (MLE). Next, path TTDs covering consecutive links are estimated based on the estimated copula models. The results demonstrate the advantage of the proposed copula-based approach, compared with the convolution without capturing link correlations and the empirical distribution fitting methods in both unfavorable and favorable coordination cases.
引用
收藏
页码:28 / 40
页数:13
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