Risk analysis of hazardous materials transportation with uncertainty

As the consequence of industrial development, the quantities of hazardous materials transportation are yearly increasing. The threat of hazardous materials to the people and environment is also increasing. Because of in the hazardous materials transportation, the probability of accident, the releasing probability involving an accident and the releasing quantity in a release accident is uncertain. The objective of this paper is to determine the risk for transporting hazardous material between the origin and destination with uncertainty by normal distribution. We developed a model to measure the risk and analyzed the risk in each uncertain factor. By this model, we can get the risk in the transportation with uncertainty. In the four situations, we prove the risk functions are still normal function and give the expected values and variables.