Exploration of Urban Emission Mitigation Pathway under the Carbon Neutrality Target: A Case Study of Beijing, China

Exploring the urban carbon neutrality pathway is crucial to the overall achievement of the net-zero emissions target in China. Therefore, taking Beijing as a case study, this paper firstly analyzes the CO2 emission drivers by combining the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) and partial least squares (PLS) methods. Subsequently, based on the optimized extreme learning machine (ELM) model, this paper projects the CO2 emissions of Beijing during 2021-2060 under different scenarios. The results show that controlling the total energy consumption and increasing the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption and electrification level should be the key measures to implement emission reduction in Beijing. Particularly, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption and electrification level should be increased to 65% and 73%, respectively, in 2060. In addition, more stringent emission reduction policies need to be implemented to achieve the carbon neutrality target. Under the H-EPS scenario, Beijing's CO2 emissions peaked in 2010 and will be reduced by a cumulative 109 MtCO(2) during 2021-2060. Along with executing emission mitigation policies, Beijing should actively increase carbon sinks and develop carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technology. Especially after 2040, the emission reduction produced by carbon sinks and CCUS technology should be no less than 20 MtCO(2) per year.