Effect of Policy Implementation on Energy Retrofit Behavior and Energy Consumption in a Simulated Neighborhood

As the heating of private households represents 16.5% of all EU final energy consumption, household energy retrofitting is a central part of the solution for the ongoing climate crisis. However, ABM models have not sufficiently been explored as a tool for designing policies for reducing household heating energy consumption through energy retrofitting. This paper presents the Household Energy Retrofit Behavior (HERB) model, which simulated energy retrofitting in a neighbourhood. The HERB model feeds a decision-making process based on existing behavioural household retrofit research with survey data and assesses the impact of different policies on cumulative energy need over 100 years. The model finds that the current Norwegian main retrofit subsidies have a positive effect on energy use. Furthermore, although motivating households to retrofit to a specific standard has no positive impact, motivating households close to retrofitting has a positive effect. Finally, lowering the threshold for receiving subsidies has a positive impact.