On the Uncertainty About the Total Economic Impact of Climate Change

被引：48

作者：

Tol, Richard S. J. ^{[1
,2
,3
,4
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Sussex, Dept Econ, Brighton, E Sussex, England

[2] Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Amsterdam, Netherlands

[3] Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Dept Spatial Econ, Amsterdam, Netherlands

[4] Univ Sussex, Falmer BN1 9RF, E Sussex, England

来源：

ENVIRONMENTAL & RESOURCE ECONOMICS | 2012年 / 53卷 / 01期

关键词：

Climate change; Economic impact; Meta-analysis; Social cost of carbon; DAMAGE COSTS;

D O I：

10.1007/s10640-012-9549-3

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

This paper uses a vote-counting procedure to estimate the probability density function of the total economic impact as a parabolic function of global warming. There is a wide range of uncertainty about the impact of climate change up to 3A degrees C, and the information becomes progressively more diffuse beyond that. Warming greater than 3A degrees C most likely has net negative impacts, and warming greater than 7A degrees C may lead to a total welfare loss. The expected value of the social cost of carbon is about $29/tC in 2015 and rises at roughly 2% per year.

引用

页码：97 / 116

页数：20

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