The Changing Relationship between Surface Temperatures and Indian Monsoon Rainfall with the Phase of ESI Tendency

Effective Strength Index (ESI) is the relative strength of NAO and SO. ESI tendency is the algebraic difference between April-ESI and January-ESI and it represents the simultaneous evolution of NAO and SO from winter to spring. During positive (negative) phase of ESI tendency, NAO restores positive (negative) phase and SO restores negative (positive) phase before the beginning of summer season. Thus during contrasting phases (positive and negative) of ESI tendency, the evolution of NAO and SO is out of phase. In this paper we have studied the spatial and temporal variability of winter-time temperature field over Europe, Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal during contrasting phases of ESI tendency. The study reveals that during positive (negative) ESI tendency, smaller (larger) region of Europe is showing significant winter-time cooling (warming) at surface. The relationship between winter-time surface temperature over above regions and Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) also shows spatial and temporal variability. The probable explanation for this change in the relationship is discussed in the paper. Two sets of temperature parameters for two different phases of ESI tendency are found out. Multiple regression equations are developed for the prediction of ISMR in each phase of ESI tendency. The performance of these equations is also discussed in this paper.