Assessing the Impact of Technology on Aircraft Systems Using Technology Impact Forecasting

In today's atmosphere of constrained defense spending and reduced research budgets, determining how to allocate resources for research and design has become a critical and challenging task. In the area of aircraft design, there are many promising technologies to be explored, yet limited funds with which to explore them. In addition, issues concerning the uncertainty in technology readiness, as well as the quantification of the impact of a technology (or combinations of technologies), are of key importance during the design process. This paper presents a methodology that details a comprehensive and structured process in which to quantitatively explore the effects of technology for a given baseline aircraft. This process, called technology impact forecasting, involves the creation of an assessment environment for use in conjunction with defined technology scenarios, and it will have a significant impact on the resource allocation strategies for defense acquisition. The advantages and limitations of the method are discussed. In addition, an example of a technology impact forecasting application, an uninhabited combat aerial vehicle, is presented and serves to illustrate the applicability of this methodology to a military system.