An Empirical Analysis on Dynamic Relationship Between External Trade and Economic Growth in China Based on VAR Model

被引：0
|
作者：
Liu Yang [1 ]
Sun Xujie [1 ]
机构：
[1] China Univ Petr, Sch Econ & Management, Qingdao 266580, Peoples R China
来源：
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NINTH INTERNATIONAL FORUM - INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND INVESTMENT | 2012年
关键词：
External trade; Economic growth; Cointegration analysis; VAR model;
D O I：
暂无
中图分类号：
F8 [财政、金融];
学科分类号：
0202 ;
摘要：
In the paper, there is an empirical study on external trade and China's economic growth from 1978 to 2010 with a dynamic econometric analysis method based on VAR model, cointegration analysis, vector error correction model, Granger causality test and variance decomposition. The empirical analysis concludes: there is a stable equilibrium relation between external trade and China's real economic growth in the long run, and there is a reverse revision mechanism in the relation, and there is bi-directional causality between external trade and China's economic growth. Therefore, china should continue to adhere to the export-oriented development strategy to promote economic growth, and also pay much attention to the import trade's effect in promoting economic growth.
引用
收藏
页码：76 / 81
页数：6
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