THE ANALYSE OF THE MACROECONOMIC VULNERABILITY IN ARGENTINA AND TURKEY AND OF THE ROLE OF THE IMF IN ARGENTINA AND TURKEY

Turkey and Argentina had similar economic problems because of the financial crises, but the extent of these problems differed. For Argentina. the crisis was deeper and hod wider impact on the whole society. In Turkey the crisis was shorter than and not as destructive us the Argentine one. This difference was not because the government applied better policies, but because, unlike Argentina, all through the crisis Turkey was supported by generous loans from the IMF and. thus. the fall in the standards of living in Turkey was less than in Argentina. Both countries claim that after crisis they achieved high macroeconomic performances. This study by using the Early Warning System (EWS) model examined the behaviour of macroeconomic indicators in both cases from the vulnerability and fragility viewpoints. The results of the study suggest that while Argentina properly improved its main Macroeconomic indicators but Turkey has yet suffering from; high vulnerability in the real sector as well as the external and banking sectors. The high real interest rate, the appreciation of the exchange rate and the free capital mobility, are understood as the main reasons of the vulnerability, in Turkey after crisis. The results confirm the high vulnerability of Turkey and the stability of Argentina in the critical period of May-June 2006. The study at the end confirms that lite IMF's wrong policy has leaded the cases towards the macroeconomic vulnerability and crisis.