Use of ENSO-related climate information in agricultural decision making in Argentina:: a pilot experience

被引：110
|
作者：
Podestá, G
Letson, D
Messina, C
Royce, F
Ferreyra, RA
Jones, J
Hansen, J
Liovet, I
Grondona, M
O'Brien, JJ
机构：
[1] Univ Miami, Rosenstiel Sch Marine & Atmospher Sci, Miami, FL 33149 USA
[2] Univ Florida, Agr & Biol Engn Dept, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA
[3] Inst Res Inst Climate Predict, Palisades, NY 10964 USA
[4] Univ Belgrano, RA-1425 Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina
[5] Ctr Invest Balcarce, Zeneca Semillas, RA-7620 Balcarce, Argentina
[6] Florida State Univ, Ctr Ocean Atmospher Predict Studies, Tallahassee, FL 32306 USA
来源：
AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS | 2002年 / 74卷 / 03期
基金：
美国国家科学基金会; 美国海洋和大气管理局;
关键词：
El Nino-Southern Oscillation; argentine pampas; climate forecasts; climate-adaptive management; linked modeling;
D O I：
10.1016/S0308-521X(02)00046-X
中图分类号：
S [农业科学];
学科分类号：
09 ;
摘要：
The availability of long-lead ENSO-related climate forecasts has led many to speculate that such forecasts may benefit decision making in agriculture. To explore the conditions required for the effective use of climate forecasts, we conducted a pilot study focused on central-eastern Argentina. Historical records showed higher (lower) average precipitation during warm (cold) ENSO events in November-December. However, variability of the precipitation signal within ENSO phases was high. National-level yields of maize, soybeans and sorghum tended to be higher (lower) during warm (cold) events. A field survey was conducted to identify impediments for forecast adoption and learn how to communicate climate information. Most farmers surveyed know about ENSO, with the 1997-1998 event marking a "turning point" in their awareness of the phenomenon. Finally, various modeling approaches were used to explore outcomes of alternative management options (changes in crop management and land allocation) tailored to climate scenarios associated with each ENSO phase. Simulation exercises identified differences in optimal management between ENSO phases. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码：371 / 392
页数：22
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