CONVERGENCE IN RELATION TO LEVEL OF SOCIETAL DEVELOPMENT

A classic version of convergence theory was proposed by Marion Levy as part of his theory of modernization: If and as the level of modernization increases (defined as a higher ratio of reliance upon inanimate energy and tools relative to animate energy), the level of structural uniformity among relatively modernized societies continually increases. I test this hypothesis by using the coefficient of variation (V) as the measure of convergence. I analyze a wide range of variables: level of economic development, capitalist market economy, demographic variables, technology, the state and political democracy, cognitive modernization, health, income inequality and poverty, gender particularism-universalism, and information and communications. Each variable is treated as one test of the hypothesis. The hypothesis is first tested by dividing 201 societies into quartiles representing four levels of development as of 1990, and comparing their V scores at one point in time (around the year 2000). Full confirmation of the hypothesis is a monotonic decline in V scores as we move from the least to the most developed societies; this is observed in 19 out of 51, or 37 percent, of the tests. The second set of tests is a stricter, longitudinal test of the hypothesis. Among the 21 societies already developed in 1965, as their level of development continued to rise from 1965 to the present, they became more convergent in 32 out of 45, or 71 percent, of the tests. Thus, variation in social structure is greater among less modernized than among more modernized societies, and this has implications for theories of globalization.