Operating Risk Analysis of Wind-integrated Power Systems

Growing environmental concerns associated with electric power generation, and the awareness toward the use of renewable energy has caused widespread and rapid increase in the installation of wind-power systems. The uncertain and intermittent nature of wind power has led to growing problems in integrating wind power in power systems as the wind-power penetration continues to increase. One of the prime requirements of operating a power system with wind power is maintaining the system reliability by committing an appropriate amount of power from available generation sources in the lead time considered. Commitment of wind power is a very crucial task that requires accurate wind-power forecasting. This article presents a time series model to recognize the variability in wind and presents a conditional probabilistic method to quantify the wind-power commitment risk during system operation. The method is applied to assess the short-term operational risks with wind power and the operating capacity credits of a wind farm using the Roy Billinton Test System test system.