An Inflation Analysis Using an Endogenous Business Cycle Model

In this article we analyze the continuous inflation dynamics using a four-equation model. When constructing the model, the traditional Kaldorian two-equation model is extended by adding two other equations. One of them describes an adaptive inflation expectations and the other continuous dynamics of the money market. In this setting, the instability velocity of money circulation is assumed due to the effects of expected inflation on money circulation velocity. Then the parameters of the model are estimated using the real Czech economic data. As it is a non-linear model in its parameters, a non-linear estimation technique is used for this purpose. Further, the stationarity as well as the stability of the estimated model is thoroughly examined as its instability may indicate that the model can generate some complex dynamics.