Dynamic simulation model of air cargo demand forecast and terminal capacity planning

被引：50

作者：

Suryani, Erma ^{[1
,2
]}

Chou, Shuo-Yan ^{[1
]}

Chen, Chih-Hsien ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Natl Taiwan Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Ind Management, Taipei 106, Taiwan

[2] Inst Teknol Sepuluh Nopember, Dept Informat Syst, Jl Raya Its 60111, Surabaya, Indonesia

[3] Fo Guang Univ, Dept Management, Jiaosi Shiang 26247, Yilan County, Taiwan

来源：

SIMULATION MODELLING PRACTICE AND THEORY | 2012年 / 28卷

关键词：

Air cargo; Demand forecast; Terminal capacity expansion; System dynamics; Scenario analysis; GROWTH;

D O I：

10.1016/j.simpat.2012.05.012

中图分类号：

TP39 [计算机的应用];

学科分类号：

081203 ; 0835 ;

摘要：

This paper establishes an approach to forecast air cargo demand related to terminal capacity expansion. To balance capacity and demand, it is required to forecast the future demand based on optimistic and pessimistic projections to decide when and how much, the airport should expand the capacity. System dynamics simulation model can provide reliable forecast and generate scenarios to test alternative assumptions and decisions. It was found that GDP and FDI play an important role in fostering the demand. Terminal expansion would be required in 2018 based on the optimistic projection; meanwhile, based on pessimistic projection, the capacity can meet demand in 2030, which means no need to increase the capacity. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：27 / 41

页数：15

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