A Nonlinear Analytical Algorithm for Predicting the Probabilistic Mass Flow of a Radial District Heating Network

This paper develops a nonlinear analytical algorithm for predicting the probabilistic mass flow of radial district heating networks based on the principle of heat transfer and basic pipe network theory. The use of a nonlinear mass flow model provides more accurate probabilistic operation information for district heating networks with stochastic heat demands than existing probabilistic power flow analytical algorithms based on a linear mass flow model. Moreover, the computation is efficient because our approach does not require repeated nonlinear mass flow calculations. Test results on a 23-node district heating network case indicate that the proposed approach provides an accurate and efficient estimation of probabilistic operation conditions.