A tool to predict survival in stage IV entero-pancreatic NEN

Purpose Well-differentiated stage IV neuroendocrine neoplasms (NEN) have an extremely heterogeneous, unpredictable clinical behavior. Survival prognostic markers, such as the recently proposed NEP-Score, would be very useful for better defining therapeutic strategies. We aim to verify NEP-Score applicability in an independent cohort of stage IV well-differentiated (WD) gastroentero-pancreatic (GEP) NEN, and identify a derivate prognostic marker taking into account clinical and pathological characteristics at diagnosis. Methods Age, site of primary tumor, primary tumor surgery, symptoms, Ki67, timing of metastases of 27 patients (10 females; mean age at diagnosis 60.2 +/- 2.9 years) with stage IV WD GEP NEN were evaluated to calculate the NEP-Score at the end of follow-up (NEP-T). We calculated the NEP-Score at diagnosis (NEP-D), which does not consider the appearance of new metastases during follow-up. Patients were subdivided according to whether they were alive or not at the end of follow-up (EOF) and an NEP-Score threshold was investigated to predict survival. Results Mean NEP-T and mean NEP-D were significantly lower in 15 live patients as compared to 12 deceased patients (p < 0.01) at EOF. We identified an NEP-D = 116 as the cutoff that significantly predicts survival. No gender differences were identified. Conclusions In our series, we confirmed NEP-Score applicability. In addition, we propose NEP-D as a simple, quick and cheap prognostic score that can help clinicians in decision making. NEP-D threshold can predict NEN aggressiveness and may be used to define the best personalized therapeutic strategy.