Measuring the persistence in trade patterns: the case for Turkey

We investigate whether the pattern of Turkish trade has a persistent nature or is dynamic, by considering 5-digit Rev. 3 trade data for the period 1969 to 2001 and investigating whether their distribution between sectors which are in surplus, in balance or in deficit, has shown persistence over time. The tools we use involve classifying the sectors as surplus, balance and deficit sectors and constructing a 3 x 3 contingency table, indicating whether sectors that, say, showed a surplus at the beginning of a period remained surplus sectors at the end of the period or moved into the balance and deficit categories, testing whether the beginning pattern is independent of the pattern at the end of a period and constructing histograms regarding the distribution of how long the sectors have been showing surpluses over the period. We used these tools on Turkish trade for the full 1969 to 2001 period and for two (1969 to 1979, 1980 to 2001) and three (1969 to 1979, 1980 to 1996, 1997 to 2001) subperiods. We conclude that when one considers long enough periods, the pattern of Turkish foreign trade has a very dynamic nature, and it appears safe to say that this dynamic nature shows itself in the post-1980 period.