Model prognoses for future acidification recovery of surface waters in Norway using long-term monitoring data

During the past 20 years, acid deposition in Europe has decreased by more than 60%, yet still a large number of lakes and streams in southern Norway have not recovered to a water quality sufficient to support sustainable populations of trout or salmon. Long-term (30 years) monitoring data were used here to constrain the calibration of the acidification model MAGIC to three Norwegian calibrated catchments. The model accounted for 60-80% of the variance in the year-to-year variations in concentrations of most of the major ions in streamwater. The results support the use of the lumped parameter acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) to link chemical parameters to biological response, as the calibration efficiency for ANC is considerably higher than for other biologically important parameters such as inorganic aluminum (Aln+) and pH. Three different scenarios for future deposition of sulfur were run: current legislation, maximum feasible reductions, and an illustrative scenario removing all anthropogenic deposition. These analyses show that much of the potential improvement in water quality has already occurred and that only limited further improvement can be expected from the current legislation. The current legislation is unlikely to produce ANC values sufficiently high to allow self-reproducing populations of trout at two of the three sites. Most of the response in water chemistry to reduced acid deposition has been rapid; the water chemical responses largely occur the same year or a few years after reduction in the input. The soil pool of exchangeable base cations depleted during 150 years of acid deposition, however, requires several centuries for replenishment. The uncertainties in future predictions come from several factors, such as future nitrogen dynamics and impacts from changes in seasalt and precipitation events. The differences in future water chemistry predicted from changed seasalt deposition or nitrogen dynamics are larger that the differences between different deposition scenarios. Hence, these factors must be included in future assessments of recovery from acidification.