Scenario planning: The future of the cattle and sheep industries in Scotland and their resiliency to disease

被引:9
|
作者
Boden, Lisa A. [1 ]
Auty, Harriet [2 ]
Bessell, Paul [3 ,4 ]
Duckett, Dominic [5 ]
Liu, Jiayi [6 ]
Kyle, Carol [5 ]
McKee, Annie [5 ]
Sutherland, Lee-Ann [5 ]
Reynolds, John [7 ]
deC Bronsvoort, Barend M. [3 ,4 ]
McKendrick, Iain J. [6 ]
机构
[1] Univ Glasgow, Sch Vet Med, Coll Med Vet & Life Sci, Glasgow G61 1QH, Lanark, Scotland
[2] SRUC Scotlands Rural Coll, Epidemiol Res Unit, Inverness IV2 4JZ, Scotland
[3] Univ Edinburgh, Roslin Inst, Edinburgh EH25 9RG, Midlothian, Scotland
[4] Univ Edinburgh, R D SVS, Edinburgh EH25 9RG, Midlothian, Scotland
[5] James Hutton Inst, Social Econ & Geog Sci Grp, Aberdeen AB15 8QH, Scotland
[6] JCMB, Biomath & Stat Scotland, Edinburgh EH9 3FD, Midlothian, Scotland
[7] SAMI Consulting Ltd, Rectory, Newbury RG14 1DY, Berks, England
基金
英国生物技术与生命科学研究理事会;
关键词
Scenarios; Futures; Resiliency; Contingency planning; Animal health; Animal disease; Livestock; TOOL;
D O I
10.1016/j.prevetmed.2015.08.012
中图分类号
S85 [动物医学(兽医学)];
学科分类号
0906 ;
摘要
In this paper, we present a description of foresighting activities undertaken by EPIC, Scotland's Centre of Expertise on Animal Disease Outbreaks, to investigate the future uncertainty of animal health security in the Scottish sheep and cattle sectors. Using scenario planning methodologies, we explored four plausible but provocative long-term futures which identify dynamics underpinning the resilience of these agricultural sectors to animal disease. These scenarios highlight a number of important drivers that influence disease resilience: industry demographics, the role of government support and regulation and the capacity for technological innovation to support the industry to meet local and global market demand. Participants in the scenario planning exercises proposed creative, robust strategies that policy makers could consider implementing now to enhance disease control and industry resilience in multiple, uncertain futures. Using these participant-led strategies as a starting point, we offer ten key questions for policy makers and stakeholders to provoke further discussion about improving resiliency and disease preparedness. We conclude with a brief discussion of the value of scenario planning, not only for the development of futures which will inform disease contingency plans and improve industry resilience, but as a mechanism for dialogue and information sharing between stakeholders and government. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
引用
收藏
页码:353 / 364
页数:12
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