Spatial-Temporal Patterns and Drivers of Illicit Tobacco Trade in Changsha County, China

Illicit trade in tobacco products (ITTP) would severely disrupt the market order, greatly threaten citizen's health, and damage the interests of the nation and the consumers, which has attracted great attention of tobacco monopoly administration. Quick and correct detection of the changes and the drivers of ITTP activity would be very significant to the surveillance, tracing, early warning, prediction, prevention and control of the illicit tobacco trade, which are very important challenges for tobacco monopoly administrations in China. In this paper, we introduce spatial-temporal analysis techniques into detecting the spatial-temporal patterns and drivers of ITTP based on the dataset provided by tobacco monopoly administration of Changsha county in Hunan province, China. The results suggested that ITTP in the county mostly occurred along the downtown-county borders, or nearby the toll stations located on the highway, logistics and freight distribution center and the junction of neighboring areas. Positive correlations were found between illegal rate and population density, the number of kindergartens and nursery schools, proximity to the borders, the number of the pupils and the middle school students, which was consistent with the previous study and social etiquette. This study could provide important intelligence and clues for the decision makers and make sure that the resources should be allocated as effectively as possible.