On summing the components of radiative forcing of climate change

被引：69
|
作者：
Boucher, O
Haywood, J
机构：
[1] Univ Sci & Technol Lille, UFR Phys, Opt Atmospher Lab, F-59655 Villeneuve Dascq, France
[2] Meteorol Off, Bracknell RB12 2SZ, Berks, England
来源：
CLIMATE DYNAMICS | 2001年 / 18卷 / 3-4期
关键词：
D O I：
10.1007/s003820100185
中图分类号：
P4 [大气科学（气象学）];
学科分类号：
0706 ; 070601 ;
摘要：
Radiative forcing is a useful concept in determining the potential influence of a particular mechanism of climate change. However, due to the increased number of forcing agents identified over the past decade, the total radiative forcing is difficult to assess. By assigning a range of probability distribution functions to the individual radiative forcings and using a Monte-Carlo approach, we estimate the total radiative forcing since pre-industrial times including all quantitative radiative forcing estimates to date. The resulting total radiative forcing has a 75-97% probability of being positive (or similarly a 3-25% probability of being negative), with mean radiative forcing ranging from + 0.68 to + 1.34 W m(-2), and median radiative forcing ranging from + 0.94 to + 1.39 W m(-2).
引用
收藏
页码：297 / 302
页数：6
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