Crash rates over time among younger and older drivers in the SHRP 2 naturalistic driving study

Objective: To examine crash rates over time among 16-17-year-old drivers compared to older drivers. Methods: Data were from a random sample of 854 of the 3,500 study participants in SHRP 2, a U.S. national, naturalistic driving (instrumented vehicle) study. Crashes/10,000 miles by driver age group, 3-month period, and sex were examined within generalized linear mixed models. Results: Analyses of individual differences between age cohorts indicated higher incidence rates in the 16-17-year old cohort relative to older age groups each of the first four quarters (except the first quarter compared to 18 20 year old drivers) with incident rate ratios (IRR) ranging from 1.98 to 18.90, and for the full study period compared with drivers 18-20 (IRR = 1.69, CI = 1.00, 2.86), 21 to 25 (IRR = 2.27, CI = 1.31, 3.91), and 35 to 55 (IRR = 4.00, CI = 2.28, 7.03). Within the 16-17-year old cohort no differences were found in rates among males and females and the decline in rates over the 24-month study period was not significant. Conclusions: The prolonged period of elevated crash rates suggests the need to enhance novice young driver prevention approaches such as Graduated Driver's Licensing limits, parent restrictions, and post-licensure supervision and monitoring. Published by Elsevier Ltd.